OVERVIEW
I wasn’t quite satisfied with my execution this week.
I took trades i consider low probability and ended up getting emotional.
On Wednesday i spent an unhealthy amount of time on the screen watching a trade like my eyes would impact the outcome.
Trades that makes me want to watch usually signals low probability, and almost always ends as hopium and copium.
I came to the realization that my ideal trading day comes down to a single word: boredom.
My best days are often slow and boring, and most importantly saves brain points.
I do what needs to be done, get on the chart, and discard anything that doesn’t look good.
I make bull and bear cases where possible, set alert, and walk away.
I proceed to enjoy my boredom in peace (maybe read a book if i feel like it).
Going into the new week, i really want to do better with my trade quality, and also my emotions.
It’s like a double edge sword where emotions can lead to patronizing low probability trades, and taking low probability trades triggers emotions.
TRADES TAKEN
FIRST TRADE:
The first trade i took was on Wednesday through Thursday, in Asian session, and it lasted for 18 hours, 48 minutes.
GBPCAD
Setup: https://www.tradingview.com/x/NdaYxfNK/
Execution: https://www.tradingview.com/x/QSbc2jHI/
Outcome: https://www.tradingview.com/x/yqyL7Z4N/
After review, i didn’t like that price wasn’t moving off of any discount array.
When there’s a resistance, i like the clear rejection to be into a discount array on the same or a timeframe below, or while approaching the resistance, we take off from a discount array. This, in my opinion, is a very good high probability filter, and i keep giving little precedence to it.
Even in the presence of a decent 2-sting, i disliked the lack of FVG around the resistance. It showed price was struggling.
I’m tilting back towards FVG again. It remains the superior PD array and should be treated as such.
Momentum remains the most accurate way to visualize a reversal. It exposes itself through the absence of FVGs, and diminishing candle sizes.
I’ve been observing this and even wrote about it twice in my personal discord where i dump everything lol.
SECOND TRADE:
I wasn’t satisfied one bit on this one, so i’ll walk through my exact thought process from analysis down to execution.
It started with a trade i missed on Tuesday, and i was looking at this:
USOIL
W: https://www.tradingview.com/x/6LqgIhg9/
4h: https://www.tradingview.com/x/anXDvnpH/
1h (UKOIL): https://www.tradingview.com/x/OF5arMEy/
on the weekly, we disrespected the FLOD and OD, and were left with a BITR, but i was still wary of shorts because we were inside a monthly context which made me bullish for the month.
I decided to flow with the timeframes and not pick a side yet.
I simply made bull and bear cases, and waited for price to show its hand. For the bear case, UKOIL was more bearish compared to USOIL, so if evidence supported shorts, it’d def be UKOIL.
The 1h timeframe presented a decent short opportunity for me, and i wanted it to be a quick trade since i had a monthly bullish bias.
I was distracted for a minute, and ended up missing the move. It was a fast price action, and in real-time i can’t confidently say i’d have taken the trade. It played out a bit differently than i had anticipated although completely valid based on the technicals.
Fast-forward to Wednesday, i took a trade based on the same setup, and it lasted for 2h, 26 minutes.
I was a bit all over the place, and to add some context, i had already taken the GBPCAD trade in Asia session before retiring to bed.
Idk but it felt like I was dreaming of myself monitoring the trade, so when I woke up, it was straight to the chart.
I didn't even bath or pray or eat breakfast or workout, all of which are things i consider the basics before anything else.
I thought it'd be a quick check, but it eventually turned into hours of unhealthy chart watching.
Because I started my day grumpily, it affected how I approached the chart as well.
Setup: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzfZiTrn/
Execution: https://www.tradingview.com/x/DDAflouc/
Breakeven: https://www.tradingview.com/x/jtOg76s5/
Outcome: https://www.tradingview.com/x/BDE6gDZl/
While i don’t consider the trade super HP, i didn’t see anything overly wrong. However, the constant chart watching, made me go breakeven earlier than I should.
I realize i don’t like price in my stop loss box, and when it happens i tend to get worried.
In this trade, i almost got stopped out, and when i was back in profit, I felt it'd be unwise to let price return to my entry, and eventually stop me out after having survived.
The biggest problem however was being too narrow minded.
If I had zoomed out, I prolly wouldn't have taken the trade i took because it'd have seen better opportunities.
When i got to the chart that morning, and after looking at the GBPCAD trade i took, i somehow stopped at UKOIL chart, and it was immediately familiar.
I recognized the missed move from the previous day, and immediately I spot something interesting, so i simply locked in without even looking at the higher timeframe.
Remember the bump in the road resistance from the weekly?
By the time the quick trade hit take profit, that was a HTF confirmation to target the LLOD.
The AoO was big enough to allow me be extremely picky.
I wasn't happy because i knew I wasn't supposed to miss the move, and i hated that I let myself stare at the chart all day for no reason, and just when the party was getting started, i had exhausted all my brain points.
My GBPCAD trade was still running or rather misbehaving, and i knew that with the way I was feeling, if that trade resulted in a loss, I'd be even more frustrated.
I decided i’ll go breakeven immediately price moved in my favor, and that was exactly what I did, and it saved me from taking a loss.
LAST TRADE:
This was after NFP on Friday, and I consider it low probability. It lasted for 3h, 25 minutes.
GOLD
Birdseye's view: https://www.tradingview.com/x/IEdaw3cm/
Setup: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FbCVBrXS/
Proposed Confirmation: https://www.tradingview.com/x/FLSUgEZL/
Execution based on the 1h (out of scope): https://www.tradingview.com/x/0gIyKG6r/
Outcome: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Vc8DQY5/
The setup was simply a daily context, and when I dropped a timeframe, I saw the resistance I wanted to be disrespected to confirm the FVG was holding.
I think i should’ve stopped here, and not go lower.
I kept toggling between Gold and Silver, and i noticed Gold was cleaner on the LTF, so i decided to trade towards the 4h:R.
The trade ended as a breakeven, and i was right about Gold’s LTF strength but it doesn't make it less low probability.